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Polls v results by @ellis2013nz

Polls v results by @ellis2013nz

Like most people, I was surprised at yesterday’s result for the Australian federal election. But I was much less surprised than most people. The two-party-preferred vote for the ALP (currently 49.11%, with a lot of pre-polling still to count) came do...

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House effects, herding, and the last few days before the election by @ellis2013nz

House effects, herding, and the last few days before the election by @ellis2013nz

So, we’re down to the last few days before the Australian federal election, the first one that I’ve been tracking polls and making forecasts for. I thought I’d address a couple of points raised on Twitter about my forecasts. My forecasts are gene...

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Familiarisation with the Australian Election Study by @ellis2013nz

April 21, 2019
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The Australian Election Study is an impressive long term research project that has collected the attitudes and behaviours of a sample of individual voters after each Australian federal election since 1987. All the datasets and documentation are freely ...

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Animating the US Treasury yield curve rates by @ellis2013nz

April 19, 2019
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Animating the US Treasury yield curve rates by @ellis2013nz

My eye was caught by this tweet by Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times with an Alan Smith animation of the US Treasury yield curve from 2005 to 2009. It’s a nice graphic and it made me wonder what it would look like over a longer period. The ?...

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Using svglite with web fonts by @ellis2013nz

Using svglite with web fonts by @ellis2013nz

OK, no stats today, just fidgeting about with graphics devices and type faces. Caveat - the details of graphics formats and typefaces is not my area of real expertise, this blog post is me noting down things that I found useful and others might too. As...

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Website with Australian federal election forecasts by @ellis2013nz

March 30, 2019
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Website with Australian federal election forecasts by @ellis2013nz

The election forecasts Building on my recent blog posts, I’ve put up a page dedicated to forecasts of the coming Australian federal election. It takes the state space model of two-party-preferred vote from my first blog on polls leading up to this e...

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Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings by @ellis2013nz

March 29, 2019
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Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings by @ellis2013nz

Warning - this post discusses gambling odds and even describes me placing small $5 bets, which I can easily afford to lose. In no way should this be interpreted as advice to anyone else to do the same, and I accept absolutely no liability for anyone...

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Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings by @ellis2013nz

March 29, 2019
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Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings by @ellis2013nz

Warning - this post discusses gambling odds and even describes me placing small $5 bets, which I can easily afford to lose. In no way should this be interpreted as advice to anyone else to do the same, and I accept absolutely no liability for anyone...

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AFL teams Elo ratings and footy-tipping by @ellis2013nz

March 22, 2019
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AFL teams Elo ratings and footy-tipping by @ellis2013nz

So now that I live in Melbourne, to blend in with the locals I need to at least vaguely follow the AFL (Australian Football League). For instance, my work like many others has an AFL footy-tipping competition. I was initially going to choose my tips ba...

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Exploring swings in Australian federal elections by @ellis2013nz

March 10, 2019
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Exploring swings in Australian federal elections by @ellis2013nz

Swings are far from uniform Last week I introduced a Bayesian state space model of two-party-preferred voting intention for Australian federal elections. It treats the surveys from various polling firms as imperfect (potentially systematically imperfe...

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