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Was the Bavarian Abitur too hard this time?

May 14, 2019
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Was the Bavarian Abitur too hard this time?

Bavaria is known for its famous Oktoberfest… and within Germany also for its presumably difficult Abitur, a qualification granted by university-preparatory schools in Germany. A mandatory part for all students is maths. This year many students protested that the maths part was way too hard, they even started an online petition with more than seventy … Continue reading "Was...

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Backtest Trading Strategies like a real Quant

May 7, 2019
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Backtest Trading Strategies like a real Quant

R is one of the best choices when it comes to quantitative finance. Here we will show you how to load financial data, plot charts and give you a step-by-step template to backtest trading strategies. So, read on… We begin by just plotting a chart of the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), an index … Continue reading "Backtest...

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The Rich didn’t earn their Wealth, they just got Lucky

April 30, 2019
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The Rich didn’t earn their Wealth, they just got Lucky

Tomorrow, on the First of May, many countries celebrate the so called International Workers’ Day (or Labour Day): time to talk about the unequal distribution of wealth again! A few months ago I posted a piece with the title “If wealth had anything to do with intelligence…” where I argued that ability, e.g. intelligence, as … Continue reading "The...

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Google’s Eigenvector… or how a Random Surfer finds the most relevant Webpages

April 24, 2019
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Google’s Eigenvector… or how a Random Surfer finds the most relevant Webpages

Like most people you will have used a search engine lately, like Google. But have you ever thought about how it manages to give you the most fitting results? How does it order the results so that the best are on top? Read on to find out! The earliest search engines either had human curated … Continue reading "Google’s...

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Base Rate Fallacy – or why No One is justified to believe that Jesus rose

April 18, 2019
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Base Rate Fallacy – or why No One is justified to believe that Jesus rose

In this post we are talking about one of the most unintuitive results of statistics: the so called false positive paradox which is an example of the so called base rate fallacy. It describes a situation where a positive test result of a very sensitive medical test shows that you have the respective disease… yet … Continue reading "Base...

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Separating the Signal from the Noise: Robust Statistics for Pedestrians

April 10, 2019
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Separating the Signal from the Noise: Robust Statistics for Pedestrians

One of the problems of navigating an autonomous car through a city is to extract robust signals in the face of all the noise that is present in the different sensors. Just taking something like an arithmetic mean of all the data points could possibly end in a catastrophe: if a part of a wall … Continue reading "Separating...

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Symbolic Regression, Genetic Programming… or if Kepler had R

April 2, 2019
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Symbolic Regression, Genetic Programming… or if Kepler had R

A few weeks ago we published a post about using the power of the evolutionary method for optimization (see Evolution works!). In this post we will go a step further, so read on… A problem researchers often face is that they have an amount of data and need to find some functional form, e.g. some … Continue reading "Symbolic...

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Inverse Statistics – and how to create Gain-Loss Asymmetry plots in R

March 26, 2019
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Inverse Statistics – and how to create Gain-Loss Asymmetry plots in R

Asset returns have certain statistical properties, also called stylized facts. Important ones are: Absence of autocorrelation: basically the direction of the return of one day doesn’t tell you anything useful about the direction of the next day. Fat tails: returns are not normal, i.e. there are many more extreme events than there would be if … Continue reading "Inverse...

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Learning Data Science: Predicting Income Brackets

March 19, 2019
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Learning Data Science: Predicting Income Brackets

As promised in the post Learning Data Science: Modelling Basics we will now go a step further and try to predict income brackets with real world data and different modelling approaches. We will learn a thing or two along the way, e.g. about the so-called Accuracy-Interpretability Trade-Off, so read on… The data we will use … Continue reading "Learning...

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Learning R: The Collatz Conjecture

March 12, 2019
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Learning R: The Collatz Conjecture

In this post we will see that a little bit of simple R code can go a very long way! So let’s get started! One of the fascinating features of number theory (unlike many other branches of mathematics) is that many statements are easy to make but the brightest minds are not able to prove … Continue reading "Learning...

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香港赛马会彩券管理局